Ocean freight rates have risen sharply heading into the back half of the peak shipping season, according to Freightos' Global Freight Outlook for July 2026. Transpacific rates are up roughly $4,000 per FEU and Asia-Europe rates up about $3,000 per FEU since mid-May, driven by strong peak-season demand even as the report notes overall demand may already be past its high point.
Hopes for a near-term normalization of container routing through the Red Sea and Suez Canal have also been pushed back. Carriers had spent much of the first half of 2026 cautiously testing transits after nearly two years of Cape of Good Hope diversions, but renewed reports that Iran may reactivate Houthi attacks on shipping have shifted industry attention back toward risk in the Strait of Hormuz rather than a broader return to Red Sea normalization.
Air cargo capacity, meanwhile, continues to climb after a dip in March, with the report pointing to data-center buildout as a major driver of freighter demand alongside continued strength in AI hardware, semiconductor, and other tariff-sensitive cargo moving via transpacific lanes.
For shippers, the combination of tightening ocean capacity, elevated rates, and an uncertain Red Sea timeline means booking risk remains lane-specific and volatile through the rest of the peak season.